On Power

On Free-Market Competition

“The earth’s climate can be protected not at a cost but at a profit.” Climate: Making Sense and Money

Amory Lovins advocates a free-market approach he calls “natural capitalism,” so called “because it’s what capitalism might become if its largest category of capital – the “natural capital” of ecosystem services – were properly valued.' A Road Map for Natural Capitalism

Lovins' non-profit Rocky Mountain Institute conducts research that has led to several spinoff corporations, and consults Fortune 500 companies such as Wal-Mart and Ford Motor Company on their product development. Lovins calls for increased efficiency of use of natural resources, advocates "closed-loop production systems, modeled on nature’s designs, every output either is returned harmlessly to the ecosystem as a nutrient, like compost, or becomes an input for manufacturing another product.” A Road Map for Natural Capitalism
 
Central to this concept is a technocratic approch to whole system thinking, in which engineers recalibrate efficiencies to locate opportunities to save resources and maximize profits: “The old idea is one of diminishing returns – the greater the resource saving, the higher the cost. But that old idea is giving way to the new idea that bigger savings can cost less – that saving a large fraction of resources can actually cost less than saving a small fraction of resources. This is the concept of expanding returns, and it governs much of the revolutionary thinking behind whole-system design." A Road Map for Natural Capitalism
 
Lovins points to Dupont as one example of this approach: “Combining closed-loop manufacturing with resource efficiency is especially powerful. DuPont, for example, gets much of its polyester industrial film back from customers after they use it and recycles it into new film. DuPont also makes its polyester film ever stronger and thinner so it uses less material and costs less to make. Yet because the film performs better, customers are willing to pay more for it. As DuPont chairman Jack Krol noted in 1997, “Our ability to continually improve the inherent properties [of our films] enables this process [of developing more productive materials, at lower cost, and higher profits] to go on indefinitely.” A Road Map for Natural Capitalism
 
Why hasn't this worked in the past? “Climate policy has been held hostage to a tacit presumption that if saving a lot more energy were possible at an affordable price, it would already have been implemented. That’s like not picking up a $100 bill from the sidewalk because if it were real, someone would previously have picked it up; or like an entrepreneur who abandons a good business idea because if it were sound, it would have been done earlier." A Road Map for Natural Capitalism
 
Large-scale efficiencies have lagged in the market because of artificial barriers due to government regulation and misplaced taxation. Lovin writes: “If such big savings are both feasible and profitable, why haven’t they all been done? Because the free market, effective though it is, is burdened by subtle imperfections that inhibit the efficient allocation and use of resources.” Climate: Making Sense and Making Money

On Government Regulation

“Name and shame energy subsidies. Desubsidizing the whole energy sector, so we pay for our energy at the meter or pump, not through our taxes, would be immensely helpful to our prosperity, security, and environment.” Amory Lovins Offers Advice

Lovins advocates bold changes to the governement’s energy policy involving less government intervention in energy.  “The role of government is to steer, not row,” while “market actors guided by clear and simple rules can best figure out what will make sense and make money.”  He adds the caveat that these rules must be well informed:  “We need to steer in the right direction—the line of least resistance and least cost—guided by a detailed and exact understanding of the barriers that now block energy efficiency, and thereby damage global development and national security.” Climate: Making Sense and Money

Adderssing Energy Secretary Steven Chu, Lovins wrote: “As the core principles of energy policy, seek to allow and require all ways to save or produce energy to compete fairly, at honest prices, regardless of which kind they are, what technology they use, how big they are, where they are, or who owns them. Who wouldn't be in favor of that?” Amory Lovins Offers Advice
 
Central to this problem are misdirected government energy subsidies: In every state but Oregon, “regulated utilities are rewarded for selling more energy, water, and other resources, and penalized for selling less, even if increased production would cost more than improved customer efficiency.” (A Road Map for Natural Capitalism) Beyond the utilities, “Energy prices are often badly distorted by subsidies and by uncounted external (larcenous) costs not internalized by the Clean Air Act’s laudable trading system. The U.S. in 1989 still subsidized energy supply by about $21–36 billion per year, mostly for the least competitive options and essentially all for supply. Significant costless (or better) reductions in carbon emissions are therefore available just by removing subsidies, a process already underway.” Climate: Making Sense and Money
 
Tax systems are also at fault: “Most companies expense their consumption of raw materials through the income statement but pass resource saving investment through the balance sheet. That distortion makes it more tax efficient to waste fuel than to invest in improving fuel efficiency.” (A Road Map for Natural Capitalism) Taxes re-enforce wasteful practices: “If corporate practices obscure the benefits of natural capitalism, government policy positively undermines it. In nearly every country on the planet, tax laws penalize what we want more of–jobs and income—while subsidizing what we want less of—resource depletion and pollution.” A Road Map for Natural Capitalism
 
Similarly, Lovins rejects the idea that we must tax carbon. “Energy price does matter, but ability to respond to price matters even more. The last time the United States saved energy very quickly—expanding GDP 19% while shrinking energy use 6% during 1979– 86—the main motivator was costly energy. Yet similar success can now be achieved by substituting high skill and attention for high prices. In the 1990s, Seattle, with the lowest electricity prices of any major U.S. city, has been saving electricity far faster than Chicago, where rates are twice as high. The key difference: Seattle is starting to create an efficient, effective, and informed market in energy productivity.” Climate: Making Sense and Money
 
But Lovins is not anti-Tax or anti-regulation.  He cites as examples of effective tax policy: a Swedish tax on automotive diesel that has resulted in sulfur emissions reduction by 75% since 1991, and a Norwegian carbon-dioxide tax that has cut power station and factory emissions by one-fifth since 1991.  The right tax can prioritize job creation while minimizing fuel usage: “Tax-shifting would signal managers to fire the unproductive tons, gallons, and kilowatt-hours, and thereby help them to keep the people, who’d then have more and better work to do. There is an intimate link between the waste of people, resources, and money—and the solutions to all three problems are also intertwined.” A Road Map for Natural Capitalism
 

On Territory

On Extra-National Networks

Lovins frames energy-related national security issues around his opposition to nuclear energy.  Lovins believes that by taking nuclear power off the table, the US will “inhibit the spread of nuclear bombs and start breaking the Copenhagen political logjam on climate justice. ...

“If a country with America's wealth, infrastructure, skills, and fuels claims it needs more nuclear power, all countries gain a strong excuse to follow suit. But U.S. acknowledgement of the market verdict favoring non-nuclear alternatives would encourage less richly endowed countries to seek profit and prestige from similar modernity. Aligning America's energy words, deeds, and offers would transform her journey beyond fossil fuels from a seeming plot to choke global development into routine, rational, replicable pursuit of least cost, green jobs, and industrial renewal.” Proliferation, Climate and Oil
 
Instead, Lovins argues, a comprensive energy policy that reduces the demand for new energy will reduce the demand for new nuclear power.
 

On Centralized Planning

“The hard path... would instead be a world of subsidies, $100-billion bailouts, oligopolies, regulations, nationalization, eminent domain, corporate statism.” The Road Not Taken 

”As national purpose and trust in institutions diminish, governments, striving to halt the drift, seek ever more outward control. We are becoming more uneasily aware of the nascent risk of what a Stanford Research Institute group has called "…'friendly fascism'—a managed society which rules by a faceless and widely dispersed complex of warfare-welfare- industrial-communications-police bureaucracies with a technocratic ideology." The Road Not Taken

Lovins staunchly rejects centralized, or hard, energy systems as an over-empowered, nuclear, martial state rooted in the urban environment. In his 1976 Foreign Affairs article, Lovins e argues for a 'soft path' to energy affiliated with the suburban and rural (see UNPLUG: Off-the-grid Enclaves): 
 
“In contrast to the soft path's dependence on pluralistic consumer choice in deploying a myriad of small devices and refinements, the hard path depends on difficult, large-scale projects requiring a major social commitment under centralized management. We have noted in Section III the extraordinary capital intensity of centralized, electrified high technologies. Their similarly heavy demands on other scarce resources—skills, labor, materials, special sites—likewise cannot be met by market allocation, but require compulsory diversion from whatever priorities are backed by the weakest constituencies. Quasi-war powers legislation to this end has already been seriously proposed. The hard path, sometimes portrayed as the bastion of free enterprise and free markets, would instead be a world of subsidies, $100-billion bailouts, oligopolies, regulations, nationalization, eminent domain, corporate statism.
 
“Such dirigiste autarchy is the first of many distortions of the political fabric. While soft technologies can match any settlement pattern, their diversity reflecting our own pluralism, centralized energy sources encourage industrial clustering and urbanization. While soft technologies give everyone the costs and benefits of the energy system he chooses, centralized systems allocate benefits to surburbanites and social costs to politically weaker rural agrarians. Siting big energy systems pits central authority against local autonomy in an increasingly divisive and wasteful form of centrifugal politics that is already proving one of the most potent constraints on expansion.
 
“In an electrical world, your lifeline comes not from an understandable neighborhood technology run by people you know who are at your own social level, but rather from an alien, remote, and perhaps humiliatingly uncontrollable technology run by a faraway, bureaucratized, technical elite who have probably never heard of you. Decisions about who shall have how much energy at what price also become centralized—a politically dangerous trend because it divides those who use energy from those who supply and regulate it.” The Road Not Taken
 

On Expanded Infrastructures

 “Centralized energy sources encourage industrial clustering and urbanization. While soft technologies give everyone the costs and benefits of the energy system he chooses, centralized systems allocate benefits to surburbanites and social costs to politically weaker rural agrarians.” The Road Not Taken

In his 1976 Foreign Poilcy article on 'hard' and 'soft' energy paths (See UNPLUG: Off-the-Grid Enclaves), Lovins lauds flexible and resilient energy sources such as wind and solar that can reflect a 'diverse' and 'pluralistic' suburban fabric.   But “This is not to say that all energy systems need be at domestic scale. For example, the medium scale of urban neighborhoods and rural villages offers fine prospects for solar collectors—especially for adding collectors to existing buildings of which some (perhaps with large flat roofs) can take excess collector area while others cannot take any. They could be joined via communal heat storage systems, saving on labor cost and on heat losses. The costly craftwork of remodeling existing systems—"backfitting" idiosyncratic houses with individual collectors—could thereby be greatly reduced.” The Road Not Taken

 

 

 

 

 

On Distributed Development

"Centralized energy sources encourage industrial clustering and urbanization. While soft technologies give everyone the costs and benefits of the energy system he chooses, centralized systems allocate benefits to surburbanites and social costs to politically weaker rural agrarians.” The Road Not Taken

In his 1976 Foreign Poilcy article on 'hard' and 'soft' energy paths (See UNPLUG: Off-the-Grid Enclaves), Lovins lauds flexible and resilient energy sources such as wind and solar that can reflect a 'diverse' and 'pluralistic' suburban fabric.   But “This is not to say that all energy systems need be at domestic scale. For example, the medium scale of urban neighborhoods and rural villages offers fine prospects for solar collectors—especially for adding collectors to existing buildings of which some (perhaps with large flat roofs) can take excess collector area while others cannot take any. They could be joined via communal heat storage systems, saving on labor cost and on heat losses. The costly craftwork of remodeling existing systems—"backfitting" idiosyncratic houses with individual collectors—could thereby be greatly reduced.” The Road Not Taken

 

 

 

 

On Off-the-grid Enclaves

“Soft technologies can match any settlement pattern, their diversity reflecting our own pluralism.” The Road Not Taken

In what is often called his “breakthrough” article in Foreign Affairs in 1976, Lovins makes a plea for 'soft energy' paths--renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, biofuel or geothermal that are diverse and dispersed, so that they can be “matched in scale and in geographic distribution to end-use needs.” The Road Not Taken

'Hard' energy paths—large, centralized power grids—lose losing energy and incur costs over vast transmission distances, and struggle with 'diseconomies' of scale such as unreliable large units, and “spinning reserve” capacity needs.  But Lovins' pleas for soft energy paths are based on politics as much as claims for greater efficiency: “The kinds of social change needed for a hard path are apt to be much less pleasant, less plausible,less compatible with social diversity and personal freedom of choice, and less consistent with traditional values than are the social changes that could make a soft path work.” That is, even if “nuclear power were clean, safe, economic, assured of ample fuel, and socially benign per se, it would still be unattractive because of the political implications of the kind of energy economy it would lock us into.” The Road Not Taken
 
'Soft' paths are also more equitable, Lovins argues: “The soft path has novel and important international implications. Just as improvements in end-use efficiency can be used at home (via innovative financing and neighborhood self-help schemes) to lessen first the disproportionate burden of energy waste on the poor, so can soft technologies and reduced pressure on oil markets especially benefit the poor abroad. Soft technologies are ideally suited for rural villagers and urban poor alike, directly helping the more than two billion people who have no electric outlet nor anything to plug into it but who need ways to heat, cook, light and pump.” The Road Not Taken
 
While an explicit critique of the urban, martial state articulated this earlier essay is not repeated in his work today, Lovins continues to tout the economic benefits of distributed electrical resources.  Relying more heavily on the language of efficiency he describes 'soft' paths as a critical factor in contempoary tech and business innovation: 
 
“If I told you, 'Many people need computing services, so we’d better build more mainframe computer centers where you can come run your computing task,' you’d probably reply, 'We did that in the 1960’s, but now we use networked PC’s.' Or if I said, 'Many people make phone calls, so we’d better build more big telephone exchanges full of relays and copper wires,' you’d exclaim, 'Where have you been? We use distributed packet-switching.'  Yet if I said, 'Many people need to run lights and motors, Wii’s, and air conditioners, so we’d better build more giant power plants,' you’d probably say, 'Of course! That’s the only way to power America.'” Does a Big Economy Need Big Power Plants?
 

On Lifestyle

On Green Consumerism

Lovins argues that energy efficiency measures should be implemented upstream, in the course of production rather than consumption.  He argues that people demand the same products and services that they are accustomed to, and that change will only occur when it can be made accessible to the masses. 

The corporation can take on risks that the consumer can't: “If you invest to save energy in your business or home, you probably want your money back within a couple of years, whereas utilities are content to recover their power-plant investments in 20–30 years—about ten times as long. Thus householders (and many corporate managers) typically require tenfold higher returns for saving energy than for producing it,104 equivalent to a tenfold price distortion. This practice makes us buy far too much energy and too little efficiency.” Climate: Making Sense and Money
 
However, this supply-side change does involve the consumer, as it must be driven by public opinion: “Many companies are discovering that public perceptions of environmental responsibility, or its lack thereof, affect sales. MacMillan Bloedel, targeted by environmental activists as an emblematic clear-cutter and chlorine user, lost 5% of its sales almost overnight when dropped as a U.K. supplier by Scott Paper and Kimberly-Clark. Numerous case studies show that companies leading the way in implementing changes that help protect the environment tend to gain disproportionate advantage, while companies perceived as irresponsible lose their franchise, their legitimacy, and their shirts. Even businesses that claim to be committed to the concept of sustainable development but whose strategy is seen as mistaken, like Monsanto, are encountering stiffening public resistance to their products.” A Road Map for Natural Capitalism
 

On Reduce Consumption

For Lovins, individuals shouldn't have to change their consumption patterns.  He writes, “if people want hot showers and cold beer, one starts with these end-use services, then asks how much energy, of what kind, at what scale, and from what source, would do each desired task in the cheapest way.” He advocates for an "End-Use/Least-Cost" approach that shifts from producing goods to providing services.  He gives the example of providing "cooling services" instead of selling air conditioners, where a company would be free to “find the cheapest way to keep its clients comfortable—an arrangement that is likely to produce more innovative and responsive solutions, and save money (and energy) for all parties.” End-Use/Least-Cost Approach

On Hedonism

“The showers will be as hot and tingly as now, the beer as cold, the rooms as well-lit, the homes as cozy in winter and as cool in summer, the cars as peppy, safe, and comfortable.” Climate: Making Sense and Money

Lovins rejects as myth that energy strategies are “about 'cutting back,' shifting to a lifestyle of privation and discomfort—as the Chairman of Chrysler Corporation recently put it, “dimming the lights, turning off the air conditioning, sacrificing some of our industrial competitiveness and curtailing economic growth. No; it’s about living even better with less cost, by using smarter technologies that yield the same or better service. The showers will be as hot and tingly as now, the beer as cold, the rooms as well-lit, the homes as cozy in winter and as cool in summer, the cars as peppy, safe, and comfortable; but we’ll have substituted brains for therms and design for dollars.” Climate: Making Sense and Money

 

On Risk

On Reduce Resource Use

Amory Lovins is a leading evangelist for energy efficiency.  He coined the term “negawatt” to describe electricity that is not produced due to gains in efficiency.  By focusing efforts on efficiency gains, Lovins believes the United States can end its dependency on foreign oil, as the US can reduce consumption more easily and cheaply than we can import more energy.

Waste reduction, to Lovins, can be achieved by following biological models, such as the silk-spinning spider.  Lovins calls upon natural metaphors to uphold his approach towards resource use: “We may never become as skillful as spiders, abalone, or trees, but smart designers are already realizing that nature’s environmentally benign chemistry offers attractive alternatives to industrial brute force.  … The central principle of closed-loop manufacturing is “waste equals food.” Every output of manufacturing should either be composted into natural nutrients and returned to the ecosystem or be remanufactured into new products.” A Road Map for Natural Capitalism
 
In echoes of Buckminster Fuller's Dymaxion Car, Lovins writes: “Enter the Hypercar. Since 1993, when Rocky Mountain Institute placed this automotive concept in the public domain, several dozen current and potential auto manufacturers have committed billions of dollars to its development and commercialization. The Hypercar integrates the best existing technologies to reduce the consumption of fuel as much as 85% and the amount of materials used up to 90% by introducing four main innovations.” A Road Map for Natural Capitalism
 
But Lovins addresses and supports renewable energy resources in addition to his focus on energy efficiency.  He attacks economic naysayers who complain that alternative energy sources are too expensive, claiming: “economic models all forget that renewable sources get cheaper when produced in higher volumes, as they’ve been doing for decades.” Climate: Making Sense and Money  He considers it likely that over the next half century, renewables could grow to supply more than half the world’s energy.

On Mutual Benefit

Climate and Economics are bound by win-win efficiency equation, according to Lovins.  Whereas in the past “business could ignore damage to the ecosystem because it didn’t affect production and didn’t increase costs,” increasing severity of climate related natural disasters are causing billions of dollars’ worth of damage that are hurting the bottom line.  Lovins sees “deforestation and climate change, factors that accelerate the frequency and severity of natural disasters,” as “consequences of inefficient industrialization.”  But, Lovins writes, “most companies still do not realize that a vibrant ecological web underpins their survival and their business success.” A Road Map for Natural Capitalism

Lovins rejects economists' claims that it's too expensive to curb energy use: “Most economic models—especially the extreme ones publicized by fossil-fuel companies’ intensive ad campaign—calculate large costs because they assume rigid, constrained, and unintelligent responses to economic signals. The few models that show economic benefit from protecting climate, even if they assume outmoded energy-efficiency techniques and impute no value to reducing carbon or other pollution, merely assume that people and firms behave with the ordinary sagacity and flexibility that market mechanisms offer—and can therefore adopt new techniques that can save far more energy, at far lower cost, at far greater speed, than most theorists can imagine.” Climate: Making Sense and Money
 
Lovins rejects risk-management thinking.  Against the 'myth' “it’s about decision-making under uncertainty,” Lovins argues, “the uncertainty doesn’t matter, because the robust economic benefits depend only on private internal costs and benefits, not on any imputed environmental values or risks.” Climate: Making Sense and Money
 
Another myth: “It’s about who should bear the costs,” to which Lovins responds: “What costs? The interesting question is who should get the profits. That’s a good thing to compete about in the marketplace, but it shouldn’t require difficult negotiations.” Climate: Making Sense and Money

Background

 

“Amory B. Lovins, a 61-year-old American consultant, experimental physicist and 1993 MacArthur Fellow, has been active at the nexus of energy, resources, environment, development, and security in more than 50 countries for 35 years, including 14 years based in England. He is widely considered among the world’s leading authorities on energy—especially its efficient use and sustainable supply—and a fertile innovator in integrative design.” Lovins is Cofounder, Chairman and Chief Scientist of the Rocky Mountain Institute, and author of Natural Capitalism: Creating the Next Industrial Revolution.  (http://www.rmi.org/rmi/Amory+B.+Lovins)
 
“Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) is an independent, entrepreneurial, 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. RMI drives the efficient and restorative use of resources to create a world thriving, verdant, and secure, for all, forever. RMI’s research and consulting staff works with businesses, communities, and organizations around the world in three interconnected practices: the built environment, energy and resources, mobility and vehicle efficiency. RMI’s work incorporates a unique blend of whole-system thinking, integrative design, end-use/leastcost analysis, and an interdisciplinary knowledge of advanced technologies and techniques.” (www.rmi.org)

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Chandra wrote 6 weeks 3 days ago

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